MMTMF — Monument Mining Limited

Deep-value analysis — MMTMF (Monument Mining Limited) · RERUN (REFRESH regime)

Analysis date: September 11, 2026 · Reference price: US… (OTC: MMTMF, close 09/10/2026) / CAD… (TSXV: MMY) · Market cap (347.9 mil. diluted shares): US… · Enterprise value: US… · Reporting currency: USD (IFRS) · Reference thesis: 08/17/2026, verdict SMALL_BUY_POSITION

This analysis’s regime. The mechanical triage deep_delta.py (09/08/2026) decided REFRESH for a single reason: an unverifiable falsifier, not a broken one. Six of the August thesis’s seven falsifiers hold; the seventh — “production stays at the current pace of ~47,000 oz/year” — couldn’t be evaluated mechanically because yfinance’s quarterly series for this issuer doesn’t contain quarters ending in June, and the revenue-growth test requires two consecutive quarters. I verify the falsifier manually below, from primary sources, and explain why the defect is structural and will recur at every future triage.

What I explicitly inherit from the 08/17/2026 report and why I’m entitled to. Between 08/17/2026 and today Monument published no filing and no press release. The last release on the company’s news page is “Monument Reports Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results” from June 1, 2026; before that, “Monument’s Drill Assay Results Highlight Selinsing Gold Mine Expansion Potential,” from May 29, 2026 (monumentmining.com/news-media/news/). There’s nothing in July, August or September 2026. The data pack regenerated today (data-pack-MMTMF-20260911.md) contains exactly the same quarters as August’s — 2026-03, 2025-12, 2025-09, 2025-03, 2024-12 — so not a single new accounting figure. The next report is the annual FY2026 (fiscal year ended 06/30/2026), scheduled by the tracker for 10/14/2026. Consequently I inherit in full, without re-reading the file: the business and cost-structure description, the management and capital-allocation analysis, the balance sheet line by line at 03/31/2026, all five O’Glove tests and the earnings-quality verdict, the CEO profile and Thorndike score, the eight red/orange/yellow accounting signals, the FCF bridge and the owner earnings definition. All carry the “inherited” tag where they appear.

What I re-derive, because it genuinely moved. (1) The gold price by fiscal quarter — the variable driving the entire valuation — has passed the cycle’s fixed peak in the quarter the company last reported; I calculate the trajectory and estimate Q4 FY2026, the very next report. (2) The share price, … versus the thesis reference, with a mechanical effect on all margins of safety. (3) The five valuation models and Monte Carlo, recalculated at … (4) The broken falsifier, verified manually. (5) The owner earnings reconciliation at normalized volume, a robustness test the August report hadn’t made explicit. (6) Two errors in today’s research brief, both checked against the price series and corrected.

Executive summary (1 page: thesis, estimated value, verdict)

The thesis, unchanged in substance. Monument Mining is a single-asset gold mine (Selinsing, Pahang state, Malaysia), technologically restarted in 2022–2023 through the switch from an oxide CIL circuit to a sulfide flotation plant, which hit that upgrade exactly during gold’s strongest cycle in history. In the trailing twelve months ended 03/31/2026 — the last published figures — the company reported revenue of …, net profit of …, and operating cash flow of …, holding at 03/31/2026 … in cash and term deposits, total financial debt of … thousand (office leases only) and zero covenants. At … that gives a TTM P/E of 3.43x, P/B of 1.225x, TTM EV/EBITDA of 1.46x and a normalized recurring FCFE yield of 28.4% on market cap / 44.8% on enterprise value. AISC of …/oz on the 9M FY2026 places the mine in the world’s first cost quartile, versus an industry average of …/oz in Q4 2025 (World Gold Council / Metals Focus).

What changed in 25 days, and it’s more than the triage shows. The delta pack reports a price move of … and a 1.1% decline in FCF yield, since it takes its baseline from a tracker snapshot from early September. Against the thesis reference price (…), the stock is actually up …, and the figure that matters more than that is a different one: gold has passed its peak. The average spot GC=F price over fiscal Q3 FY2026 (Jan.–Mar. 2026) was …/oz — the company’s best quarter ever, the one the market sees in the TTM. The average for Q4 FY2026 (Apr.–Jun. 2026), the quarter to be reported October 14, is …/oz, 7.2% lower. The average for the current quarter, Q1 FY2027 (July 1 – September 10, 2026), is …/oz, another 5.6% lower and 12.4% below the fiscal peak. Today’s spot is …/oz, 17.9% below the 12-month high (…/oz). The TTM figures anyone buying today looks at are cycle-peak figures, and the next two reports will be sequentially weaker even if nothing operational breaks. This is a verifiable fact, not an opinion, and I’ve incorporated it into the valuation — not by changing assumptions, but because my normalization anchor (gold at …/oz) remains conservative, though its margin has thinned from 11.3% to 9.1% versus spot.

Estimated value. I kept the five models from August — there was no reason to change them, since no input moved: net cash remains … (same balance sheet), diluted shares 347.9 million (same structure), normalized owner earnings … (same FCF bridge, same …/oz anchor, still below spot). What moved is the denominator. At … the five models give an intrinsic-value range of US… – US… per share, with a median of US…, i.e. margins of safety from … to …, with a median of … — versus … … … with a median of … in August. The margin of safety has compressed by roughly 16 percentage points at the median and, more importantly, the pessimistic end has fallen from … to …: the low-cycle model now leaves practically no margin. Monte Carlo over 20,000 scenarios, with the same stated assumptions (OE 72 · g1 … · r 12% · gt … · net debt −…), gives a median intrinsic value of US… and a P10–P90 range of … … … (it was … … …). External check: Fundamental Research Corp., the only house covering the stock, published on 06/24/2026 a fair value of CAD… (researchfrc.com), equivalent to US… at today’s rate of 1.3841 — … versus …, essentially at my median of …. External convergence holds.

Verdict: BUY, SMALL POSITION — maintained, but with an explicit degradation in entry-point quality. I’m not downgrading the thesis, since none of the seven falsifiers broke and since the asymmetry remains in the buyer’s favor: at … you pay … for … of net cash (40.0% of market cap, down from 43.5% in August) plus roughly 2.1 years of normalized recurring cash flow. The threshold gold price at which the margin of safety hits zero on the base model (6 years, r 12%) is …/oz — 41.5% below spot and below any level reached since Q4 2024. But three things have gotten marginally worse and need to be said: the pessimistic end of the triangulation has fallen to …; EV per ounce of annual production has risen from … to … (the market now pays for ~1.1 years of AISC margin, versus ~0.95 years); and the window to the documentary catalyst has narrowed to roughly one month. Operational verdict: those without a position can still open one now, but small and preferably after the annual report on October 14, which brings both the Q4 FY2026 figures and — or not — the updated NI 43-101 technical report simultaneously. Those with a position hold it. Nobody increases it before October 14.

The valuation markers are at the end of the report.