ADI Global Distribution Inc. ADIG

Deep-value analysis — ADI Global Distribution Inc. (NYSE: ADIG) — REVISIT

Regime: REFRESH. The reference thesis is from August 15, 2026 (verdict SPECULATIVE, median MOS …, interest price below …). The mechanical triage deep_delta.py decided to revisit on a single triggered falsifier — pe > 18 — and this report's first conclusion is that that falsifier is poorly specified and was triggered from day one, not by new information. Details in the verdict chapter.

Primary sources, in order of weight. The issuer's SEC filings (CIK 0002105139): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended July 4, 2026 (acc. 0001628280-26-056748); Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K from 08/13/2026 (earnings release, with the outlook table); Information Statement — Exhibit 99.1 to Form 10-12B/A from 07/01/2026 (acc. 0001213900-26-074253, Deloitte-audited statements 2023–2025). New filings appearing after the reference thesis, verified directly in EDGAR for this refresh: Schedule 13G BlackRock, Inc. filed 09/04/2026 (acc. 0002012383-26-003271, event date 08/31/2026); six Form 144s for Jay Geldmacher's account, 08/19–28/2026 (acc. 0001950047-26-008436 … -008833); Form 4 Michael Carlet, EVP & CFO, filed 08/18/2026 for transactions on 08/15 (acc. 0001873242-26-000007); Form S-8 from 08/07/2026. Quotes, comparable multiples and consensus: yfinance, 09/06/2026 (last closed session: 09/04/2026). Web research brief research-ADIG-20260906.md — used only for sell-side coverage context, with checks flagged below. Data pack: data-pack-ADIG-20260906.md. Simulation: mc-ADIG-20260906.json.

What I inherit and what I re-derive

Inherited in full, without re-verification (no new financial filing between 08/15 and 09/06/2026 — the next reporting, Q3 2026, is scheduled for November 12, 2026, per the tracker calendar):

• the business description, the four product-category structure, the moat sources, and the durability verdict (5–10 years, not 20);
• the entire balance sheet analysis across the four available points (Dec.-24, Dec.-25, Apr.-26, Jul.-26) and the quarterly margin/conversion series;
• the entire Quality of Earnings chapter — receivables, inventory, debt, discretionary expenses, accruals — since it's built on audited 2023–2025 figures and the August 13 10-Q, neither restated;
• the FCF bridge and the owner-earnings base of …lion (verified line by line in the consolidated statement of cash flows; US GAAP filer, interest and leasing entirely in CFO);
• the accounting red-flag list (seven items), including the trap of the reported −…lion CFO;
• the post-spin debt structure and maturity ladder.

Re-derived in this report, because facts moved: the ownership structure and passive flow (13G BlackRock), the selling behavior of holders inherited from Resideo (the 144s), realized volatility and liquidity, sell-side consensus (estimate and targets), the entire triangulated valuation at today's price, and the Monte Carlo simulation.

Move declared as OPINION, not fact: cost of equity lowered from …% to …%. The reason is in the valuation chapter; I separate it explicitly so it isn't confused with a factual move.

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