Capital Limited CAPD

Deep-value analysis — CAPD (Capital Limited), August 24, 2026

Working symbol: CAPD · Real symbol: CAPD.L (London Stock Exchange, Main Market) · ISIN BMG022411000 (Common Shares USD 0.0001, Depositary Interests) Reference price: … GBp (08/24/2026) · Shares: 225.7 mil · Market cap: … = … (GBPUSD 1.36543) Reporting currency: USD. Trading currency: GBp (pence). DIFFERENT CURRENCIES — any yield reported against market cap passes through a conversion. 52-week range: 89.0 – 156.0 GBp · Sector: mining services (exploration drilling, contract mining, geochemical laboratories)

Identification note — symbol collision resolved. The bare CAPD symbol resolves on Yahoo Finance to the iPath Shiller CAPE ETN (quoteType=ETF, USD, no CFO, capex or shares). The first run of deep_data_pack.py on 08/24/2026 produced a completely empty data pack for exactly this reason. The real company is Capital Limited (formerly Capital Drilling, renamed June 2020), listed exclusively in London under CAPD.L, not SEC-registered (no CIK, no companyfacts XBRL — primary filings are RNS releases via FCA/National Storage Mechanism). I added the collision to _BVB_ALIASES in deep_data_pack.py and regenerated the data pack; EDGAR wasn't queried, correctly, since no SEC filing exists. All figures below come from the company's RNS releases (FY2025 from 03/19–23/2026, H1 2026 from 08/20/2026, Q2 2026 Trading Update from 07/16/2026), supplemented with yfinance for historical series and stockanalysis.com for external yield verification.

---

Executive summary

Capital Limited is a three-legged mining services contractor — exploration drilling and grade control (58% of H1 2026 revenue), contract mining/waste stripping (20%) and geochemical laboratories through the MSALABS division (20%) — operating predominantly in Africa (Egypt, Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea, Mauritania, Tanzania, Gabon, Namibia) and, since 2025, in Pakistan (Reko Diq, for Barrick) and Saudi Arabia (Ma'aden). The investment thesis rests on one thing: 2026 is the year the "Rest of World" segment turns from loss into consistent profit, and the consequence is a visible margin inflection in the numbers — H1 2026 revenue … (… versus …), Adjusted EBITDA … (…), margin 25.0% versus 20.2%, and the Rest of World segment profit jumped from −… to +… on revenue growing from … to … (H1 2026 RNS, 08/20/2026).

The counter-thesis is just as concrete and lives in the cash flow statement, not the income statement. Over the last four fiscal years (2022–2025), Capital generated a cumulative … of free flow to shareholders — an average of … a year, on a current market cap of … The best year, FY2025 with …, was largely funded by stretching suppliers: trade payables rose from … to … (+…, DPO from 108 to 173 days), and the working-capital change added +… to CFO. Strip out that contribution, and FY2025 produced roughly zero free flow. In H1 2026, even with record EBITDA, FCFE was …, and TTM (H2 2025 + H1 2026) only ….

The second structural element: of the … market cap, … (32%) is a portfolio of junior miner shares — WIA Gold, Asara Resources, Apollo Minerals — that management runs as a separate strategy and explicitly refuses to use as a funding source for operations ("We don't look at it as a funding source for the business," Jamie Boyton, H1 2026 conference call). The portfolio generated revaluation gains of … in FY2025 — 93% of the … gross profit — which makes the reported P/E of 4.51x and ROE of 21.9% accounting artifacts, not measures of the business. The published forward P/E (9.89x) is the only multiple figure that says something.

The FCF bridge (detailed in the valuation chapter): CAPD reports under IFRS, but — unlike the AFYA pattern — places all interest in operating activities (finance costs paid … + interest on lease liabilities … in FY2025, both above the "Net cash from operating activities" line). The only correction missing from CFO − capex is lease principal, … in FY2025, reported in financing. The divergence is material: simple FCF … vs FCFE …, …. The definition used in the DCF is FCFE, normalized to the FY2026 run-rate: ….

The triangulated valuation gives a wide and honest range: from … (bear DCF) to … (bull DCF), with the median of the five models at …. Monte Carlo over the base-case DCF (20,000 scenarios) gives a median MOS of ** …**, with a … probability of undervaluation, but with P25 at … — i.e. a quarter of scenarios already show the stock as expensive. Greenwald EPV on the average earning power of the last five years gives …: on what the company has proven, not what it promises, the stock is already fully paid for.

Verdict: INTERESTING, small position (1… of portfolio), not conviction. The operating business, stripped of the portfolio, trades at 2.8x FY2026E Adjusted EBITDA (… EV ex-portfolio / …) — genuinely cheap versus Perenti (4.6x), Geodrill (7.4x), Foraco (9.4x) or Major Drilling (14.1x). But the market's reluctance isn't irrational: four years of near-zero cash conversion, an effective tax rate on operating profit of 45…, governance concentrated in an Executive Chair with no CEO since March 2025, a 14.8% dilution done at … in November 2025 (when the stock was about to reach … in nine months), and zero buybacks in the company's history. You're buying a real inflection, at a reasonable price, from a management that allocates capital well outside the operating balance sheet and mediocrely within it.

---