Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A. UNI

Deep-value analysis — UNI · Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A. (Borsa Italiana, ISIN IT0004810054)

Analyst: Claude (deep-value agent) · Date: 08/24/2026 · Reference price: EUR … (close 08/23/2026) · Market cap EUR 19.92 bn · 717,206,043 shares

IDENTIFICATION WARNING — read before any figure. Today's earlier run (05:42) produced a research brief and data pack on the wrong company: research-UNI-20260824.md describes Unicaja Banco S.A., a Spanish bank listed on the Bolsa de Madrid (Yahoo UNI.MC), and the initial data pack came back empty because the bare symbol "UNI" also resolves to Unicaja. The tracker's ticker (Sumar sheet, row 332) is UNI = Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A. (formerly Unipol Gruppo), Exchange = MIL, ISIN IT0004810054, price EUR … — an Italian insurer, not a Spanish bank. I fixed deep_data_pack.py (a new entry in _BVB_ALIASES: "UNI": ("UNI.MI", ...), commented with the reason), regenerated the data pack, and redid all web research from scratch. Everything below is about Unipol. The existing research brief was NOT used as a source for any figure in this report, except to document the collision.

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Executive summary

Unipol Assicurazioni is the largest Italian-capital insurance group: #1 in Danni (non-life) and #1 in Motor Liability in the Italian market, with EUR 17.4 bn of direct premium in 2025 (…) and the densest agent network in the country. The company is the product of two decades of contrarian M&A — the Fondiaria-SAI rescue (2012), the UnipolSai merger (2024) and, since 2022, the buildup of a stake in BPER Banca that today reaches an aggregate 29.966% (19.98% actual + ~9.98% through total return swaps notified to Consob on June 7 and 18, 2026) and which, after integrating Banca Popolare di Sondrio and MPS assets, is set to become Italy's third bank-insurance pole, with combined profitability of ~EUR 2 bn split nearly equally between insurance and banking (CEO Matteo Laterza's statement, August 2026).

The fundamentals are excellent and improving. FY2025: consolidated net profit EUR 1,530 mil. (…), Danni combined ratio 92.9% (from 93.6%), Auto CoR 94.8% (from 100.0% — a 5.2-point reversal in a year), consolidated Solvency II 233% (from 212%), ROE 15.0%, dividend EUR 1.12/share (…, EUR 804 mil. total). H1 2026 accelerates: reported net profit EUR 913 mil. (…), EUR 1,056 mil. (…) with BPER for the full half, CoR 91.8%, consolidated Solvency II 259%, consolidated equity EUR 11,813 mil. The second quarter (EUR 570 mil.) beat consensus by 13…. The 2025-2027 strategic plan ("Stronger|Faster|Better," approved 03/28/2025) targeted EUR 3.8 bn of cumulative three-year profit — after 1,530 in 2025 and 913 in the first half of 2026, the target is already outpacing plan, which says more about the plan's conservatism than about performance.

The problem isn't the business, it's the price. The stock has done 5.4x in under three years: EUR 5.16 at end-2023 → 12.03 at end-2024 → 20.57 at end-2025 → … today. Over the same period, EPS grew from 1.54 to … (TTM), i.e. 1.55x. The remaining 3.5x is pure multiple expansion: P/E from 3.35x to 11.62x, P/B from 0.50x to 1.99x. The re-rating has real causes (the disappearance of UnipolSai minorities, the disappearance of the holding discount, the re-rating of Italian financials, the spectacular BPER gain), but it has already been consumed. Triangulating five models gives a range of … ... …, with a median of …: the only model family still seeing undervaluation is growth DCF; the asset anchor (EPV Greenwald, no growth) says …, and reversion to its own historical multiples says ….

My verdict: HOLD / PARTIAL BUY ONLY BELOW ~EUR 24. Quality justifies holding, not the price justifying buying. Monte Carlo across 20,000 scenarios gives a …% probability of undervaluation and a median of …, but that distribution exclusively simulates the DCF family and inherits its optimism; the 25th percentile is already at …, and the 10th percentile at …. The left tail isn't catastrophic (P5 = …, beta 0.589, dividend 4.03% covered by a 52.6% payout), so a small sentinel position is defensible — but the deep-value window at Unipol closed in 2024, when the stock traded at 0.5x book value. Today you're buying a quality compounder at a fair price, not a margin of safety.

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