AAPL — Apple Inc.

Deep-Value Report: Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Date: 2026-07-12 · Analysis price: … · Market cap: …T Analyst: Claude Sonnet 4.6 · Sources: SEC EDGAR, yfinance/data-pack, Q2 FY2026 earnings search, 10-K FY2025, Q2 FY2026 earnings call

Executive summary

Investment thesis (or the lack of one): Apple is, without a doubt, one of the best businesses in the history of capitalism. Its moat — an ecosystem of 2.5 billion active devices, proprietary silicon, structural switching costs and a globally powerful brand — is real, durable and expanding through on-device AI. TTM FCF of … billion (…/share) is quasi-guaranteed regardless of the macro backdrop. Nonetheless, at the current price of … and a market cap of … trillion, the stock trades at a P/E of 38.2x and an FCF yield of 2.8% — a valuation that embeds optimistic 10+ year scenarios with no margin for error.

Estimated value:

• Conservative DCF (FCF growth 10%/5Y, 7%/5Y, terminal 3%, WACC 9%): …/share
• Base-case DCF (FCF growth 13%/5Y, 9%/5Y, terminal 3.5%, WACC …%): …/share
• Optimistic DCF (FCF growth 15%/5Y, 10%/5Y, terminal 4%, WACC 8.5%): …/share
• Earnings Power Value (EPV, zero growth): …/share
• Historical multiples at 5Y average P/E of 30x: …/share

Intrinsic value range: …–…/share (base-case midpoint ~…) Current price: … → ~13% premium to base-case midpoint, or 36% premium to conservative DCF

GBL verdict: MONITOR (Score … / Denominator 60) An exceptional company at an exceptionally high valuation. There is no margin of safety at the current price. Justified in a portfolio only if the investor accepts an entry P/E in the 30s-40s over a 5-10 year holding period and believes Services will reach …-200B revenue in FY2030 (CAGR ~ …). Any multiple compression toward the historical 30x average generates a ~20% loss even if fundamentals remain intact.

TRACKER;2026-07-12;AAPL;315.32;14.75;4.5;8;3;9;MONITORIZEAZĂ;…%;60