Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB) · Financial Services
Banca Transilvania S.A. TLV
MonitorScore band: 60–70
Scored as a financial: return on invested capital has no meaning for a bank or an insurer, so that criterion is removed from both the score and the maximum.
The thesis, in one sentence
Romania's leading bank with a quantifiable funding moat — a very low loan-to-deposit ratio and a large deposit surplus — and exceptional returns on common equity, but the price sits well above where three independent models converge.
Written for this site in plain English, without figures. The arithmetic is in the full report.
The thesis is from the deep report of 2026-09-01; the verdict badge reflects the latest scoring of 2026-09-06.
Key risks
- A large competition-authority fine is not provisioned for
- The book multiple is far above any reasonable range for the region
- The case assumes today's exceptional returns are structural, not cyclical
What would change the verdict
- Price to book falls back into a reasonable historical range
- Return on equity falls toward the cost of equity
- Revenue growth stops accelerating
- Net margin falls once the fine is fully provisioned
Read it yourself
Step five of the method is the reader's: open the latest annual or quarterly report and read it before acting on anything here. A score is a summary, and a summary is not understanding.
Filings at Bursa de Valori București →
Next report expected 2026-11-20. The deep report was written against the filings available on 2026-09-01; anything published since is not in it.
Price, one year
DCF valuation range
range of the DCF modelsbase casetoday's price
Valuation range, shape only. Figures in the full version.
Monte Carlo outcome shape
scenarios below today's pricescenarios above today's pricetoday's price
Distribution of simulated outcomes around today's price. Bar heights only; the scale and the percentiles are in the full version.
Chapter one: What I inherit and what I re-derive
Deep-value report: Banca Transilvania S.A. (BVB: TLV) — REVISIT (REFRESH mode)
Report date: 2026-09-01 · Price: … (yfinance TLV.RO, 2026-09-01) · Shares outstanding: 1,246,380,975 · Market cap: 43.10 bn. RON · Reference thesis: 2026-07-23 (verdict INTERESTING, 65.3% GBL) · Triage: REFRESH — 1 unverifiable falsifier.
SEC filings used: NONE. TLV is a BVB issuer, with no CIK at EDGAR (SEC-Filings\TLV\ doesn't exist;
the ticker collision is resolved automatically by deep_data_pack.py via _BVB_ALIASES → TLV.RO). The primary source
remains BT's own reporting (press releases + IR presentations), supplemented with financial press with URLs and the
local data pack (yfinance).
What I inherit and what I re-derive
Inherited unchanged from the 2026-07-23 report (rapoarte/deep/2026-07-23-deep-TLV.md):
the group structure and moat sources (lines 67-146), the acquisition history and the normalization of the
675 mn. lei OTP bargain gain (lines 147-213), the Fitch BBB / Moody's Baa2 rating trajectory,
and the methodological framework (Residual Income + EPV instead of an FCF DCF, with bottom-up Ke, not CAPM on beta 0.483).
Fully re-derived, because a new filing or my own verification moved it:
- H1 2026 results (published 08/24/2026, after the reference thesis) — the "unverifiable" falsifier from the delta-triage pack.
- Share count. The old report used 1,090,322,225 shares (the PRE-increase count, from the AGM convening notice) against a POST-increase price. All per-share figures from that report (BVPS …, EPS …, EPV 31.1, RI base 30.4) are inflated by 14.4%. Corrected below, with an audit trail.
- The 960.77 mn. lei ROBOR fine (Competition Council decision, 06/09/2026) — entirely absent from the old report, even though it precedes the thesis by six weeks. Unprovisioned as of 06/30/2026.
- The 500 mn. EUR AT1 issuance from 11/27/2025 — the 2.53 bn. lei of "Other Equity Interest" on the balance sheet is NOT common shareholder capital. The old report wrongly attributed the equity jump to other causes.
- The turnover tax. The old report said it was falling from 2% to 1% starting in 2026. False: it was doubled to 4% effective 07/01/2025 and kept there throughout 2026.
The price move (… → …, … in 39 days) is context, not the reason for the revisit, and doesn't enter the thesis.
Figures were removed from this excerpt. The full report opens free for five tickers a week — see what's open now.
Full report contents
- What I inherit and what I re-derive
- 🔒 Executive summary (Available in the full report)
- 🔒 The business and its moat (Available in the full report)
- 🔒 Management and capital allocation (Available in the full report)
- 🔒 What changed in the last 4 quarters (Available in the full report)
- 🔒 Balance sheet analysis — Quality of Earnings (Thornton O'Glove method) (Available in the full report)
- 🔒 The CEO profile — Outsider traits (William Thorndike method) (Available in the full report)
- 🔒 Accounting red flags (Available in the full report)
- 🔒 Triangulated valuation (Available in the full report)
- 🔒 Pre-mortem: why the thesis could be wrong (Available in the full report)
- 🔒 Verdict compared with the tracker's GBL score (Available in the full report)
- 🔒 Tracker line (Available in the full report)
- 🔒 Markers (Available in the full report)
Evaluation history
| Date | Verdict |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Interesting |
| 2026-07-11 | Buy candidate |
| 2026-07-12 | Buy candidate |
| 2026-07-19 | Monitor |
| 2026-07-23 | Interesting |
| 2026-09-01 | Monitor |
| 2026-09-06 | Monitor |
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